Wednesday 2 January 2013

Why the Demba Ba switch could be good business for both parties (and agents)

Demba Ba looks set to swap St James' Park for West London today, completing a £7.5 million move to Chelsea.

Newcastle's prolific striker is the first of the Graham Carr signings to have enhanced their reputation at Newcastle before moving on, and as long as the Magpies can keep their other main stars they should creep away from the bottom of the table.

After another defensive batting collapse, the 2-1 reverse to Everton, Pardew admitted what most of us could see: the Ba and Cisse combination was one that never worked.

Last season Ba was shifted right to accommodate the red-hot form of Cisse and this campaign it was Ba with the Midas touch, with Cisse shifted wide.

Given that Ba actually played as a wide midfielder for Hoffenheim, Pardew's deference to him must have been an, ultimately fruitless, ploy to convince the striker to commit to the club.

The Chelsea switch is beneficial for all parties: Ba's goals and form helped fire Newcastle to fifth last year and in doing so has earned himself a move to the European champions. A free-signing in a pay-as-you-play deal, Ba represents excellent value for money for Newcastle.

£5 million of that return looks to be signing Matthieu Debuchy from Lille, one of the few highlights from France's Euro 2012 campaign. Mike Ashley needs to back Pardew's eight year deal in the transfer market, with Newcastle needing at least another two defenders and now cover up front.

It can be no coincidence that Cisse scored in the first game since Ba's exit was all but confirmed, and if Davide Santon had glanced across the box the Newcastle number nine ought to have drawn the game level.

This graphic from whoscored.com is an excellent indicator of why I think Newcastle will be better off with Cisse up front on his own, without a team set up around Ba.


Ba has a fantastic goal-scoring record since moving to the Premier League, but his tally of 0 assists for Newcastle is a reminder of his limitations as a striker.

Newcastle's game plan this season has involved hitting it long to Ba, who in turn tries his luck from about 30-35 yards. Remember any go in? His inability to involve team mates can't have helped the team perform as a unit and is a polar opposite to his new striking rival at Chelsea.

Fernando Torres has surfaced from his dearth of confidence, but he still seems unwilling to try percentage shots, preferring a simple pass to a team mate which isn't always the best option.

Ba's shoot on sight policy at Newcastle is unlikely to be welcome at Stamford Bridge, but his selfish running and movement could be the perfect tonic for Chelsea's midfielders.

Ba's exit gives Alan Pardew an opportunity to start again at Newcastle. Cisse proved he can score for fun last season and with Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye returning to fitness, Newcastle fans should be quietly confident that their team edges up the table.

Sylvain Marveaux might have taken twelve months to recover from injury and settle at St James' Park, but he has been outstanding in recent games and a front three of Cisse, Ben Arfa and Marveaux will trouble defences in the Premier League. The absence of Ba, results in a more fluid triumvirate up front and Newcastle will no longer be able to rely on the long-ball.

Pardew was able to call upon the same back five in the first fourteen fixtures of 2011/2012, but a succession of injuries have meant his defensive unit and midfield has been in flux this season. Injury to Cabaye and Ben Arfa, Newcastle's best midfielders and the best  Frenchmen in England, has been a big loss and Cheick Tiote has had a disappointing 2012.

Newcastle's squad is of the calibre to be competing for a top ten finish. Mike Ashley must back Pardew in the transfer window and with a little more luck over injuries, Newcastle should ease away from danger in 2013.

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