In the build-up to this years final Barcelona have already been made clear favourites with the bookies, at virtually evens at 21/20 and Man Utd coming in behind at 3/1. One time Barcelona striker Lineker, further encouraged the cause of the Catalans, revealing today that the final was Barcelona's to lose and United's only hope was a stroke of luck or if the Spanish champions didn't perform and 'failed to turn up'.
The tag of underdogs makes no difference to Ferguson's preparation, although he will no doubt be working on making amends for the repeat of this fixture two years ago in Rome, when Barcelona emerged 2-0 victors. Sir Alex has always insisted that he knew what went wrong in the Stadio Olimpico and this Saturday's final provides the first and hugely important chance for him to prove his theory.
On that night, Barcelona's passing "carousel" overcame the initial threat from United in the opening 10 minutes, and in the end eased to a 2-0 triumph. Although Guardiola's squad of 2009 has since lost several of its marquee names in; Henry, Eto'o, Yaya Toure and Rafael Marquez, Ferguson has declared that the current Barcelona team are an even stronger prospect.
United, on paper, also appear to be a weaker team than the line-up two years ago, with Ronaldo and Tevez now playing elsewhere but, like Barcelona the loss of such big names seems not to have affected performances on the pitch. Guardiola has bought in David Villa and the emergence of young talents like Pedro and Busquets have more than filled the void; whilst at United, Rooney has taken on the role of chief creator and players like Valencia, Giggs and Hernandez have all stepped up this campaign.
A Messi-led Barcelona remain beatable however, as Arsenal showed earlier this season. Already being dubbed the best team there has ever been by some commentators, the Catalans game plan of 70% possession leaves little room for a Plan B. Previous Barcelona teams, whilst being founded in Cruyff's 'total football' also had a physical presence. Zlatan Ibrahimovich might have not have taken to life in Spain but his height gave Guardiola's men another dimension to their game, which the current side lack.
Inter stopped Barcelona last year by restricting any space in the centre and final third of the pitch, which is where Messi and his team-mates can cause the most damage in unpicking defences. As such, who Ferguson decides to select and the formation is of huge importance. Will he risk selecting Hernandez and Rooney in a 4-4-2 formation or instead look to match Barcelona in midfield by playing five in the middle?
The positions of Vidic and Ferdinand appear cemented, but any Liverpool or indeed United fan will remember the pasting that Vidic has often suffered when confronted with pace and strength, as Fernando Torres can testify. Vidic was exposed for the first of Barcelona's goals in Rome, and Messi managed to sneak between the two to head the magnificent second goal in 2009. Vidic's main strength remains his aerial ability, which is unlikely to be tested by a diminutive Barcelona, so there will be even more pressure on his tracking of runs especially when there will be no out and out striker to pick up.
I wouldn't go as far as to suggest that the improving Chris Smalling should start but, the success of Manchester United depends on how they press Barcelona as a unit not on their physical presence. One player who was harshly suspended from the 2009 final is Darren Fletcher, and his energy and hustling were severely missed that night, with Michael Carrick easily overran by the Catalan midfield. His fitness and return may prove crucial, as the likely midfield pairing of Giggs and Carrick may not be able to cope with the dynamism of Barcelona's forward players.
Inter Milan triumphed last year with a midfield containing two defensively minded players in Motta and Cambiasso, who acted as a screen for the defence and prevented Messi from exploiting gaps in the Inter back-line. Barcelona may well be a one-off: their brand of 70% possession football is almost impossible to replicate and poses a huge problem to opposition teams, how to prevent a team from scoring when they monopolise possession for so long and how to threaten when the ball is taken? Sir Alex claims to have a solution to this conundrum and this Saturday will reveal whether his team do indeed have a game-plan capable of preventing the Barcelona procession claiming a fourth European title.
