Pep 'snubs' the Premier League for Germany

Less than 24 hours after the Football Association delivered their remarkable coup (getting Pep to say something nice about English football) Josep Guardiola was named as the permanent manager of Bayern Munich from this summer, on a three year contract.

Cue outrage from the more easily agitated red-tops in Britain, who deemed this a snub towards the English game and bewilderment from The Sun, who had reported the week before that Pep was “100%” set to take over at Manchester City. Why the games most desirable manager would choose to work for City or Chelsea, hardly an example of sporting stability, is scarcely discussed. The thought that there could be a more attractive league or club in world football is not in the lexicon of the English tabloid media, although the FifPro World XI and later UEFA XI teams of 2012, without a single representative from the Premier League, should have been an indicator of the leagues standing outside of the UK.

PEP GUARDIOLA (as the FA were keen to label him on their 150^th anniversary gala) instead decided to ply his trade in the most financially secure leagues in football, signing a three year deal, a more significant deal then he ever signed at Barcelona, where 12 month contracts were the norm. Bayern Munich may be the most financially affluent club in the Bundesliga, but their unrivalled position as the largest club in Germany and subsequent turnover means they can afford the yearly extravagance.

With Financial Fair-Play coming into effect from 2013-14, Germany’s position as an economic powerhouse, with clubs which are majority fan-owned (Wolfsburg, Leverkusen and Hoffenheim aside), will become even more advantageous.

Bayern may have a team of expensively assembled stars: Arjen Robben, Mario Gomez, Manuel Neuer, Franck Ribery and Javi Martinez all cost €30 million plus, but the club has unearthed several youth team stars in club-captains Phillip Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger. Thomas Muller is an academy of the reserve side and Toni Kroos has been the Bavarian’s best midfielder this season, playing in a number 10 role that is fast becoming his in the national set-up.

Holger Badstuber, Jerome Boateng and David Alaba complete a back four which has an average age of just 24. Swiss pocket dynamo, Xherdan Shaqiri, was an excellent acquisition last summer and at just 21 is the long-term successor to Ribery or Robben, while further evidence of a flourishing academy is the progress of Emre Can, already billed as "the midfielder of the future and a jewel for Bayern Munich" by chairman Uli Hoeness.

Compared to Chelsea, whose last academy graduate to establish himself at Stamford Bridge was John Terry, you can see why the fiercely proud Catalan has opted for the Bundesliga runner-up. Guardiola is likely to want to implement the Barcelona badge of football in Germany, which could be problematic for several of the existing players. Kroos has been Bayern’s best player this season, but his position at number 10 would become obsolete in a Barcelona style 4-3-3. Mario Gomez and Mario Mandžukić likewise are not suited to a possession heavy approach and would struggle to play as a ‘false 9’ like Messi.

Manuel Neuer has fantastic football technique for a goalkeeper, so should be under little pressure and the young defence is comfortable playing out from the back, though someone of Matt Hummels passing ability would enhance the unit. Convincing Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery to track and hunt possession like a La Masia graduate could be Gurdiola’s biggest challenge. Both are characters in the dressing room, and I would not be surprised to see one of the pair leave in the summer of 2013.

Guardiola already has Javi Martinez at his disposal (a player Barcelona tried to sign last summer) who lacks the soft feet of Xavi or Iniesta, but is a player who has been part of the Spain national squad for the past four years. Sergio Busquets has been inspirational for Barcelona this campaign, and you wonder whether Guardiola will attempt to convince the player he coached with the B team with him to Germany.

On a personal level I would have enjoyed seeing Guardiola take on the challenge of re-building Milan. After a heavy exodus in the last 18 months, Milan are putting faith in several youngsters: Stephan El Shaarawy, who has been excellent, left-back Mattia De Sciglio and Kevin Prince Boateng.

The three year deal in Germany seemingly coincides with Ferguson’s likely exit, and despite expressing surprise at Pep’s move to Germany, Ferguson is good friends with the 42-year-old and is likely to express support, should Guardiola wish to test himself at Old Trafford and finally indulge the FA and British media in further hyperbole.

Best league in the world?

There was a time, four years ago, when you could argue that the Premier League was the most competitive league in football.

England supplied three Champions League semi-finalists in 2007/2008, with Arsenal also competing in the quarter finals before an all English final in Moscow was settled by penalties in favour of Manchester United.

Fast forward to 2012 and the much fabled 'best league in the world' only has two representatives in the last 16 of the Champions League. Manchester United and Arsenal scraped through their respective groups, despite few convincing performances in Europe and in the coming years England's second coefficient spot could come under threat from the financially regulated might of the Bundesliga.

Whilst third place still allows four sides to compete in the Champions League, of greater concern are the performances English sides have produced when faced with foreign opposition. I can't recall any games from this campaign where a Premier League side has convincingly dominated and won a game.

Arsenal were extremely fortunate to take one point from Schalke, who topped the group, and faced some nervous moments against Montpellier, who have just six wins this season and Olympiakos, who finished just a point behind Arsenal.

Manchester United were handed one of the 'Europa League groups' that Jose Mourinho complained off, in comparison to his own teams group of death, and topped the group despite playing very poorly. United conceded first in five of their group games and generally defending terribly, but the combined fire-power of Robin Van Persie and Javier Hernandez disguised these wobbly performances.

Even the most jingoistic football fans would not suggest that English sides have a divine right to top their group, but it is the ease with which Premier League sides have been unable to match other teams in terms of ball retention and tactical acumen, which is the real indicator.

The Premier League is technically deficient compared to Serie A and La Liga, there is no question of that. Even the Bundesliga, which is the closest in terms of style of play, has several teams which are far more proficient with the ball. All three German sides topped their Champions League groups, and with Hannover, Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Monchengladbach progressing in the Europa League, the Bundesliga has an impressive seven representatives in the latter stages of European football.

Roy Hodgson and his side were outplayed by every team at Euro 2012, a 30 minute spell in the Sweden game aside, and the physical and speed focused aspects of the Premier League are starting to seriously hamper it's chances internationally.

English football has produced some incredible results over the last 12 months: United winning 8-2 over Arsenal, City scoring six at Old Trafford, Chelsea losing 5-3 to Arsenal and commentators are right to label this brand of football exciting. But exciting does not translate as effective and European sides are increasingly able to take advantage of the defensive errors that were incumbent in the previously mentioned goal-fests.

The Premier League tops the big five leagues, in terms of goals conceded as a result of individual errors, which suggests that teams are tactically stronger in La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the Ligue 1 as individuals are not exposed as frequently. This stat can be found here, via whoscored.com, and is further indication that the Premier League is far from the strongest. Fans want to see well construed goals, not defensive errors which lead to efforts.

Italy occupy fourth place in the UEFA coefficients, but I would argue that the strength of their league is greater than the Premier League. A hypothetical top six of Juventus, Inter, Milan, Roma, Fiorentina and Napoli would beat a supposed top six of United, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Newcastle from England

The tactical dominance of Serie A was displayed in Turin three weeks ago, as Juventus romped to a 3-0 scoreline, which flattered Chelsea in truth. Roberto Di Matteo was sacked the next day, but there was very little any side could have done to stop Juventus that evening. Their fluid 3-5-2 saw the Old Lady dominate all areas of the pitch, with numerical superiority in defence and midfield.

Manchester United emerged as 3-2 winners in the hectic Manchester derby this afternoon but the 4-2 between Roma and Fiorentina in Italy on the same weekend featured the better football, from teams that are likely to fight it out for fourth place.

The Roy of the Rovers style of the Premier League may be exciting to some, but football purists and fans will appreciate the technical dominance exercised by the rest of Europe and hope that theses teams won't escape further into the distance before the English game tries to catch up.

Some Totti genius.

Ajax to the future

Ajax rolled back the years with their vintage display against Manchester City in the Champions League, and with a starting XI that boasted seven academy graduates the future looks bright for the four-time European Cup winners.

Frank De Boer's side had an average age of just 24.36 years and boasted little European experience, but tore apart the defending Premier League champions who lurch from one poor showing to another. Mancini might be the domestic cup specialist, winning the Coppa Italia with three clubs as a manager and the FA Cup with City, but his performances in Europe have never lived up to billing.

Despite winning three straight scudettos with Internazionale in 2006, 2007 and 2008, Mancini was sacked by the hard to please Massimo Moratti after failing to impress in Europe and the same infliction seems to hinder Manchester City. They have been slow starters domestically and against the elite of Europe these defensive errors will be punished, as Ajax discovered and who grew in confidence before controlling the game.

Despite the excellent showing, it is unlikely that Ajax will escape Group D, but De Boer and his assistant Dennis Bergkamp will have been delighted with the way their young team out-manoeuvred Manchester City. Manchester City were poor last week and offered little in attack, but against Dortmund and Real, the Dutch champions defence was harshly exposed. Hardly a surprise, when you look at the calibre of defenders who have left the Amsterdam Arean in the last three years; Vermaelen, Vertonghen, Van der Wiel and Anita.

Ajax have retained their offensive-minded players for the last two seasons; Christian Eriksen pulling the strings along with nationalised Dutchman, and captain at just 23, Siem De Jong. The forward interchanged position with Ryan Babel constantly and slammed home the equaliser for Ajax in some style. However, if Ajax continue to flounder in the group stages without progressing to the knock-outs they will be unable to fend of preying clubs who take a shine to their young stars.

The Dutch giants have been unlucky to draw Real Madrid in their group two years running, and wind up in this years 'group of death', but young stars like Eriksen and De Jong are likely to leave for a stronger league in the near future. The Bosman ruling decimated the Louis Van Gaal drilled Champions League winning side of 1994-95 and the growing financial excesses of the Premier League and the big two in Spain will continue to threaten Ajax.

Eriksen has been on the radar of European heavyweights for three years, and despite two failed showings for Denmark on the international stage he is the most attractive prospect in the current set-up. The Dane was actually on trial at Chelsea as a 15-year-old, eventually electing to further his career in the Netherlands but the next young Danish star making headlines for Ajax is 18-year-old, Viktor Fischer.

Fischer burst onto the scene as a result of a hat-trick which eliminated Liverpool from the inaugural NextGen Series, as Ajax made it to the final of the new tournament designed to give under-19s an early taste of continental competition. He finished as top-scorer with nine goals en route to the final, where Ajax were beaten by an Inter Milan side, led by current boss Andrea Stramaccioni, and has started equally well in this years competition, scoring four of the 10 goals that Ajax have smashed home in their first two games.

The teen is more of an out-and-out finisher than his compatriot, Eriksen, and made his first ever appearance for the full team in the 3-3 draw with Hercules last weekend. Manchester United were linked with a £5 million bid for the starlet last summer and if his goal-scoring form continues this season he could find himself negotiating with even more clubs.

A product of the De Toemkest academy, Fischer is yet to make his full debut for the Danish national team, but a record of 20 goals from 30 under-17 games suggest his breakthrough will come soon. De Toemkest literally translates as the future, in Dutch and it is easy to see why it is held in such high regard around the world.

Ajax are enshrined to the 4-3-3 formation and much like La Masia, Toemkest preaches a particular style of football; somewhere between 'Total Football' and tika-taka. General manager, David Endt, reveals the philosophy in place, "We're not developing for other clubs; we're developing for ourselves. This is football how we want to play it."

Statistics have become a integral part football coaching in the last decade and Ajax are ahead of their time with their latest innovation - the miCoach performance centre, adjacent to De Toemkest. Resembling an oversized golf ball, the centre contains pressure plates, high-definition cameras for biomechanical analysis of technique and an artificial pitch to replicate the Amsterdam Arena.

Personality and psychology are also analysed in detail, with head of sports science, Edwin Goedhart, explaining that: "talent is 80%... training is 20%. The rest is what we can add [mental coaching/analysis]. Even if it's only 1% improvement, spread over a team that is 11%."

All students at De Toemkest undertake neuropsychological testing and this is used to quantify why certain players make better in-game decisions than others. Goedhart raises a fascinating point about how these tests could "go a long way to developing more natural Dutch leaders, arguably the one failing of the Ajax system" and to a greater extent the national team.

Two hands on the title?

Sir Alex Ferguson conceded that Manchester City had two hands on their first Premier League title yesterday after the Citizens overcame a battling Newcastle side 2-0 on Sunday.

Barring a slip-up against lowly QPR, or a ridiculous goal-swing, Roberto Mancini looks to be on his way to his fourth league title, and his first in England. City deserved the win over Newcastle, but it was their manager who deserves most of the credit for his game-changing substitution in the 61st minute.

Replacing the, again ineffective Samir Nasri, for the on-paper more defensive midfield bruiser, Nigel de Jong, Mancini relieved some of the defensive duties on Yaya Toure and within 10 minutes the Ivorian went on to score the all important first goal.

At the time of Mancini's substitution I imagine City fans up and down the country were cursing their Italian and obviously defensive manager in a game that they needed to win, but the tactical switch proved to be telling and looks to have wrapped up the title for City.

Mancini was heavily criticised in his first year and a half in Manchester for being too cautious and was superbly vindicated by his substitutions and tactics today. A dangerous Newcastle side were well contained and Manchester City's cosmopolitan squad showed no sign of choking in this match.

With a five point lead over Mancini and his team, Ferguson had United in prime position a month ago. The defensive mistakes that have blighted the last few United performances can be accused, but the anaemic side that Ferguson put out in last weeks derby was a real turning point and a huge tactical error from the Scot.

Ferguson has had success hitting teams on the counter in the past, notably against Arsenal with Ronaldo running riot, however in the 'unmissable' game last week the United midfield were almost embarrassed by Man City's midfield engine.

A midfield of Scholes, Giggs, Carrick, Park and to a lesser extent Nani, has no dynamism to it and Manchester City were able to press incredibly high-up the pitch, much like Barcelona. Sir Alex got his tactics spectacularly wrong that night, in trying to match City up on the pitch and in effect try to take the draw, he played straight onto the hands of Mancini.

Player-to-player you would argue that City are by far stronger than the individuals in the United team. Aguero and Tevez are much better than Rooney and Welbeck, Hart beats De Gea, Kompany and Lescott are the best defensive pairing in the league, whilst Silva and Toure have carried City through several games this year. What has cost City at stages this season is their inability to always perform to their maximum potential, whereas United tend to over perform in more matches.

Rather than stick to their attacking flair, provided by the outstanding Valencia and Young, Ferguson tried to shut up shop and contain the most potent attacking side in the league. It went badly wrong and the tactical gamble looks like costing United the league.

Meanwhile, in the Budweiser Cup there was a rather predictable result as Chelsea just about did enough to beat a poor Liverpool side. Chelsea bossed the game for 60 minutes and it took the introduction of Andy Carroll to stir Liverpool into some response.

Carroll looked as if he had entered a time-warp and was reminiscent of the player that terrorised defences during his time at Newcastle. He gave John Terry a torrid time and somehow managed to dance round the former Engalnd skipper to score for Liverpool.

He was unlucky not to equalise, after Petr Cech pulled off a superb save to deny him his second, though you could argue the striker ought to have scored, heading it into the ground would have given Cech no chance. I would take Carroll to the Euro's and his third goal in four Wembley appearances may just have done enough for the Geordie.

Peter Crouch was propelled to the top of the England strikers queue after scoring a worldie and then doing little else, but for me Carroll can alter a game more dramatically and is most definitely one for the future.

Deplorable as he is, Ashley Cole was magnificent on Saturday and the left-back now has seven FA Cup winners medals. His form this season has been patchy, but since seeing Leighton Baines take his traditional place in the PFA team of the year, Cole has turned in superb performances both domestically and in Europe.

As for King Kenny, he is in for an arduous summer. Liverpool needed the FA Cup to avoid their season being branded a failure and are still £100 million worth of investment away from challenging the top four.

The Liverpool midfield is woefully ill equipped and Steven Gerrard was culpable on Saturday evening. Spearing and Henderson were the sitting midfielders, but after proving inefficient, Gerrard kept dropping back to just in front of his defence to pick up the ball and as a result the Liverpool midfield has well out of shape.

Liverpool have not replaced Mascherano and Alonso and with Gerrard on the wane for the last two seasons, they may be looking at three new midfielders before they can start competing again.

Manchester derby on the way to becoming 'biggest game in the world"

Sir Alex Ferguson's interpretation of the Liverpool vs. Manchester United match being the biggest club game in the world raised eyebrows, not least from those in Madrid and Barcelona. The game itself failed to live up to its billing, a stagnant first half not helped by United's negative set-up and in the end United were the happier of the two teams to come away with a point.

However perhaps the closest challenge to the United juggernaut this season comes closer from home; in the form of Mancini's Manchester City. With both of their key strikers back from injury and back to scoring ways mid-week, the showdown between Rooney and Aguero is one that promises much for football fans.

Much has been made of the excellent form of both sides and their unbeaten domestic starts, though if anything City are the side who look to have the edge in terms of performances this season. Roberto Mancini's apparent change of identity and nationality has seen him abandon his more cautious approaches last year and really attack teams. Although with a front five of Aguero, Dzeko, Nasri, Silva and Balotelli any other approach would be a gigantic misappropriation of talent.

After a bold start United's last few performances suggests that the youth and vigour that enhanced the team early on has either been sussed out by other teams or has inevitably slowed. After steam-rollering Spurs, Bolton and Arsenal (who were then beaten by bottom of the table Blackburn) the levels of performance have dropped slightly.

A 3-1 win over Chelsea disguised the fact that United were outplayed for large chunks of the game at Old Trafford and Chelsea were unlucky to not come away with at least a point. The 2-0 victory over Norwich was also far from clear-cut, Norwich created a hat-ful of chances against the defending champions and ought to have scored at least once and truly threatened United.

Performances in Europe have also been far from dynamic with two draws and a win as United just about produced the bare minimum to take something from the game. Followed up with a lucky draw at Anfield and on paper City head into this years first derby as the in-form team. What does remain in doubt is how City handle the biggest of occasions, of which this Sundays match is. United are infamous for eking out results when not playing brilliantly and are well schooled in how to handle the big occasions, how City handle this seasons biggest occasion will determine how the game pans out; here's hoping for a seven goal thriller rather than a classic show-piece in Italian defending.