Pep 'snubs' the Premier League for Germany

Less than 24 hours after the Football Association delivered their remarkable coup (getting Pep to say something nice about English football) Josep Guardiola was named as the permanent manager of Bayern Munich from this summer, on a three year contract.

Cue outrage from the more easily agitated red-tops in Britain, who deemed this a snub towards the English game and bewilderment from The Sun, who had reported the week before that Pep was “100%” set to take over at Manchester City. Why the games most desirable manager would choose to work for City or Chelsea, hardly an example of sporting stability, is scarcely discussed. The thought that there could be a more attractive league or club in world football is not in the lexicon of the English tabloid media, although the FifPro World XI and later UEFA XI teams of 2012, without a single representative from the Premier League, should have been an indicator of the leagues standing outside of the UK.

PEP GUARDIOLA (as the FA were keen to label him on their 150^th anniversary gala) instead decided to ply his trade in the most financially secure leagues in football, signing a three year deal, a more significant deal then he ever signed at Barcelona, where 12 month contracts were the norm. Bayern Munich may be the most financially affluent club in the Bundesliga, but their unrivalled position as the largest club in Germany and subsequent turnover means they can afford the yearly extravagance.

With Financial Fair-Play coming into effect from 2013-14, Germany’s position as an economic powerhouse, with clubs which are majority fan-owned (Wolfsburg, Leverkusen and Hoffenheim aside), will become even more advantageous.

Bayern may have a team of expensively assembled stars: Arjen Robben, Mario Gomez, Manuel Neuer, Franck Ribery and Javi Martinez all cost €30 million plus, but the club has unearthed several youth team stars in club-captains Phillip Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger. Thomas Muller is an academy of the reserve side and Toni Kroos has been the Bavarian’s best midfielder this season, playing in a number 10 role that is fast becoming his in the national set-up.

Holger Badstuber, Jerome Boateng and David Alaba complete a back four which has an average age of just 24. Swiss pocket dynamo, Xherdan Shaqiri, was an excellent acquisition last summer and at just 21 is the long-term successor to Ribery or Robben, while further evidence of a flourishing academy is the progress of Emre Can, already billed as "the midfielder of the future and a jewel for Bayern Munich" by chairman Uli Hoeness.

Compared to Chelsea, whose last academy graduate to establish himself at Stamford Bridge was John Terry, you can see why the fiercely proud Catalan has opted for the Bundesliga runner-up. Guardiola is likely to want to implement the Barcelona badge of football in Germany, which could be problematic for several of the existing players. Kroos has been Bayern’s best player this season, but his position at number 10 would become obsolete in a Barcelona style 4-3-3. Mario Gomez and Mario Mandžukić likewise are not suited to a possession heavy approach and would struggle to play as a ‘false 9’ like Messi.

Manuel Neuer has fantastic football technique for a goalkeeper, so should be under little pressure and the young defence is comfortable playing out from the back, though someone of Matt Hummels passing ability would enhance the unit. Convincing Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery to track and hunt possession like a La Masia graduate could be Gurdiola’s biggest challenge. Both are characters in the dressing room, and I would not be surprised to see one of the pair leave in the summer of 2013.

Guardiola already has Javi Martinez at his disposal (a player Barcelona tried to sign last summer) who lacks the soft feet of Xavi or Iniesta, but is a player who has been part of the Spain national squad for the past four years. Sergio Busquets has been inspirational for Barcelona this campaign, and you wonder whether Guardiola will attempt to convince the player he coached with the B team with him to Germany.

On a personal level I would have enjoyed seeing Guardiola take on the challenge of re-building Milan. After a heavy exodus in the last 18 months, Milan are putting faith in several youngsters: Stephan El Shaarawy, who has been excellent, left-back Mattia De Sciglio and Kevin Prince Boateng.

The three year deal in Germany seemingly coincides with Ferguson’s likely exit, and despite expressing surprise at Pep’s move to Germany, Ferguson is good friends with the 42-year-old and is likely to express support, should Guardiola wish to test himself at Old Trafford and finally indulge the FA and British media in further hyperbole.

Best league in the world?

There was a time, four years ago, when you could argue that the Premier League was the most competitive league in football.

England supplied three Champions League semi-finalists in 2007/2008, with Arsenal also competing in the quarter finals before an all English final in Moscow was settled by penalties in favour of Manchester United.

Fast forward to 2012 and the much fabled 'best league in the world' only has two representatives in the last 16 of the Champions League. Manchester United and Arsenal scraped through their respective groups, despite few convincing performances in Europe and in the coming years England's second coefficient spot could come under threat from the financially regulated might of the Bundesliga.

Whilst third place still allows four sides to compete in the Champions League, of greater concern are the performances English sides have produced when faced with foreign opposition. I can't recall any games from this campaign where a Premier League side has convincingly dominated and won a game.

Arsenal were extremely fortunate to take one point from Schalke, who topped the group, and faced some nervous moments against Montpellier, who have just six wins this season and Olympiakos, who finished just a point behind Arsenal.

Manchester United were handed one of the 'Europa League groups' that Jose Mourinho complained off, in comparison to his own teams group of death, and topped the group despite playing very poorly. United conceded first in five of their group games and generally defending terribly, but the combined fire-power of Robin Van Persie and Javier Hernandez disguised these wobbly performances.

Even the most jingoistic football fans would not suggest that English sides have a divine right to top their group, but it is the ease with which Premier League sides have been unable to match other teams in terms of ball retention and tactical acumen, which is the real indicator.

The Premier League is technically deficient compared to Serie A and La Liga, there is no question of that. Even the Bundesliga, which is the closest in terms of style of play, has several teams which are far more proficient with the ball. All three German sides topped their Champions League groups, and with Hannover, Leverkusen, Stuttgart and Monchengladbach progressing in the Europa League, the Bundesliga has an impressive seven representatives in the latter stages of European football.

Roy Hodgson and his side were outplayed by every team at Euro 2012, a 30 minute spell in the Sweden game aside, and the physical and speed focused aspects of the Premier League are starting to seriously hamper it's chances internationally.

English football has produced some incredible results over the last 12 months: United winning 8-2 over Arsenal, City scoring six at Old Trafford, Chelsea losing 5-3 to Arsenal and commentators are right to label this brand of football exciting. But exciting does not translate as effective and European sides are increasingly able to take advantage of the defensive errors that were incumbent in the previously mentioned goal-fests.

The Premier League tops the big five leagues, in terms of goals conceded as a result of individual errors, which suggests that teams are tactically stronger in La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the Ligue 1 as individuals are not exposed as frequently. This stat can be found here, via whoscored.com, and is further indication that the Premier League is far from the strongest. Fans want to see well construed goals, not defensive errors which lead to efforts.

Italy occupy fourth place in the UEFA coefficients, but I would argue that the strength of their league is greater than the Premier League. A hypothetical top six of Juventus, Inter, Milan, Roma, Fiorentina and Napoli would beat a supposed top six of United, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Newcastle from England

The tactical dominance of Serie A was displayed in Turin three weeks ago, as Juventus romped to a 3-0 scoreline, which flattered Chelsea in truth. Roberto Di Matteo was sacked the next day, but there was very little any side could have done to stop Juventus that evening. Their fluid 3-5-2 saw the Old Lady dominate all areas of the pitch, with numerical superiority in defence and midfield.

Manchester United emerged as 3-2 winners in the hectic Manchester derby this afternoon but the 4-2 between Roma and Fiorentina in Italy on the same weekend featured the better football, from teams that are likely to fight it out for fourth place.

The Roy of the Rovers style of the Premier League may be exciting to some, but football purists and fans will appreciate the technical dominance exercised by the rest of Europe and hope that theses teams won't escape further into the distance before the English game tries to catch up.

Some Totti genius.

Why the Demba Ba switch could be good business for both parties (and agents)

Demba Ba looks set to swap St James' Park for West London today, completing a £7.5 million move to Chelsea.

Newcastle's prolific striker is the first of the Graham Carr signings to have enhanced their reputation at Newcastle before moving on, and as long as the Magpies can keep their other main stars they should creep away from the bottom of the table.

After another defensive batting collapse, the 2-1 reverse to Everton, Pardew admitted what most of us could see: the Ba and Cisse combination was one that never worked.

Last season Ba was shifted right to accommodate the red-hot form of Cisse and this campaign it was Ba with the Midas touch, with Cisse shifted wide.

Given that Ba actually played as a wide midfielder for Hoffenheim, Pardew's deference to him must have been an, ultimately fruitless, ploy to convince the striker to commit to the club.

The Chelsea switch is beneficial for all parties: Ba's goals and form helped fire Newcastle to fifth last year and in doing so has earned himself a move to the European champions. A free-signing in a pay-as-you-play deal, Ba represents excellent value for money for Newcastle.

£5 million of that return looks to be signing Matthieu Debuchy from Lille, one of the few highlights from France's Euro 2012 campaign. Mike Ashley needs to back Pardew's eight year deal in the transfer market, with Newcastle needing at least another two defenders and now cover up front.

It can be no coincidence that Cisse scored in the first game since Ba's exit was all but confirmed, and if Davide Santon had glanced across the box the Newcastle number nine ought to have drawn the game level.

This graphic from whoscored.com is an excellent indicator of why I think Newcastle will be better off with Cisse up front on his own, without a team set up around Ba.

Ba has a fantastic goal-scoring record since moving to the Premier League, but his tally of 0 assists for Newcastle is a reminder of his limitations as a striker.

Newcastle's game plan this season has involved hitting it long to Ba, who in turn tries his luck from about 30-35 yards. Remember any go in? His inability to involve team mates can't have helped the team perform as a unit and is a polar opposite to his new striking rival at Chelsea.

Fernando Torres has surfaced from his dearth of confidence, but he still seems unwilling to try percentage shots, preferring a simple pass to a team mate which isn't always the best option.

Ba's shoot on sight policy at Newcastle is unlikely to be welcome at Stamford Bridge, but his selfish running and movement could be the perfect tonic for Chelsea's midfielders.

Ba's exit gives Alan Pardew an opportunity to start again at Newcastle. Cisse proved he can score for fun last season and with Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye returning to fitness, Newcastle fans should be quietly confident that their team edges up the table.

Sylvain Marveaux might have taken twelve months to recover from injury and settle at St James' Park, but he has been outstanding in recent games and a front three of Cisse, Ben Arfa and Marveaux will trouble defences in the Premier League. The absence of Ba, results in a more fluid triumvirate up front and Newcastle will no longer be able to rely on the long-ball.

Pardew was able to call upon the same back five in the first fourteen fixtures of 2011/2012, but a succession of injuries have meant his defensive unit and midfield has been in flux this season. Injury to Cabaye and Ben Arfa, Newcastle's best midfielders and the best  Frenchmen in England, has been a big loss and Cheick Tiote has had a disappointing 2012.

Newcastle's squad is of the calibre to be competing for a top ten finish. Mike Ashley must back Pardew in the transfer window and with a little more luck over injuries, Newcastle should ease away from danger in 2013.